Sample of first thesis piece

 

The Likeliness of Trevor not being let into a bar because of his intoxication, as oppose to his stupid hat.

Trevor is a 31 year old man wearing a child’s tuque with a picture of the little mermaid on it. He decides this is the appropriate attire to accompany his 4 friends for a night of dancing at the Crawford house. Before entering the bar each friend, including Trevor, consumes 4  2.0z drinks.

Each friend is let into the bar except for Trevor, who the bouncer claims has “had enough already”

What is the likeliness that Trevor was not let into the bar because of his hat, as oppose to his visible level of intoxication.

 P(y) is the probability he was not let in because of his hat (00.5) = unlikely, although I was utterly convinced of it at the time.
P(x) is the probability he was not let in because of his visible level of intoxication (00.5) = unlikely
P(x+y) is probability that it was a combination of the two (0.89) = extremely likely
P(z) is the probability that they will get to stay in the bar anyway (00.1) = extremely unlikely


(Note:A bunch got cut off (mostly Chris. sorry dude) because the scanner I used was too small, but this is pretty much the final product. I'll scan a better version when I get a chance.)